Theodore Lowi scrive per PoliticsMatters
E’ con grandissimo piacere - nonch? orgoglio - che pubblichiamo l’email del politologo statunitense Theodore J. Lowi (Cornell University).
Dear Rosanna:
I was away for a family wedding this past weekend, and this is my first opportunity to reply. I congratulate you for your effort, “PoliticsMatters,” and will try to help by giving you a “forecast.” Use it as you wish, and shorten or edit it as you see fit.
The American presidential race is closer than we have probably ever seen. Bush is ahead 7-8 points in the “red states” he carried in 2000. Kerry is ahead by 10 points in the “blue states” Gore carried in 2000. Bush and Kerry are dead even at 48 percent each in the “swing states.” And the candidates and voters are more polarized than ever. Within that context we can make 5 wildly irresponsible forecasts:
(1) An “October surprise” – some real or invented threat attributable to the Bush-defined world terrorism.
(2) Serious allegations of voting frauds and intimidations, leading to extensive recounts in states where a few illegal or unaccounted votes can reverse the outcome of that state and thus the national election.
(3) Another resolution of the election in the Supreme Court – aborting the electoral process a second time, with still more damaging illegitimacy in the presidency.
(4) A Bush re-election.
(5) The only bright possibility (in the view of this observer) is a Democratic re-capture of the Senate, producing at least two years of “divided government.”
I also circulated your paragraph describing “PoliticsMatters” to a very active student group at Cornell, Democracy Matters. Hope you will hear from them.
Ted